Aberystwyth to Carmarthen line

[Rhobat Bryn]

Whisper it quietly but yesterday afternoon (12th March) saw a short debate led by Simon Thomas of Plaid Cymru on the reopening of the above line. As you might expect, the Minister, Edwina Hart, while supportive, ended with the words, "If only we had the money."

However it's early days. There was mention in the debate of the possibility of the line qualifying for the next round of EU structural funds.

For those wanting to know more, they can go to the Railfuture website at:

http://railfuture.org.uk/article1444-Wales-campaign

To sign the petition, you can go to:

https://you.38degrees.org.uk/petitions/ ... 1374343188

Access to this website is also available from the Railfuture website.

[Rhobat Bryn]

In questions to the First Minister yesterday (21st April), he appeared to indicate, in a reply to Elin Jones - AM for Ceredigion, that an assessment of the practicalities of re-opening the line should proceed in due course.

[s.w.johnson]

Reopening this has to be the daftest idea I have heard of for some time and remember there is an election on at present so we are being bombarded with stupid ideas. The line didn't pay when it was open. It doesn't serve any major centres of population. The line speed was relatively low and I suspect the geometry would be such that unless there was work to ease curves etc, it would be low if the line was reopened. The cost of reopening would, I suspect, be significant. From a national point of view, I can see the wish for better north south connections within Wales but I suspect the thing to do is upgrade the A470, aa much cheaper option.

Another daft idea is reopening the Rhondda tunnel as a cycle and walking route. It was closed because the walls were distorting badly to the point where there was a danger of them being hit by trains. To put that right would be expensive.

[Rhobat Bryn]

I am always suspicious of those who describe other people's ideas as daft and stupid in such a dismissive manner, without providing any convincing evidence to support their argument.

The line in full closed on 22nd February 1965, just over half a century ago. You make the point that the line didn't pay when it was open. So are you suggesting that we should base our current decision-making on railway reopenings on the economic circumstances of 50 years ago? Doesn't it make more sense to base these decisions on current economic circumstances? There are a significant number of circumstances that have changed since those times. Most significantly, the demand for rail travel is on the increase. At the time of the closure, passenger journeys were running at about 900 million journeys per annum and in decline. It reached its nadir in the early 80s with journey numbers reaching just above 600 million pa. After that, it began to show signs of a revival. By the mid-1990s, journeys had gone up to about 750 million. In the 20 years since then, passenger journeys have more than doubled. In 2013, the most recent figure I could find, the number of journeys had reached 1.6 billion pa.

The second important development is that of railway technology both in terms of track technology and rolling stock. Both of these will be valuable in resolving issues of line speed and comfort of travel, both important factors in attracting passengers to the line.

It seems then, in the face of these overwhelming facts, only reasonable to reconsider the validity of reopening the line between Aberystwyth and Carmarthen. This line would connect three university towns, Aberystwyth, Lampeter and Carmarthen, all of which have a sizeable student population. In terms of journey times, the aim of the campaign is to have a 90 minute journey time between Aber and Carmarthen. Personally, I think that a journey time of an hour is more than achievable but then I'm not involved in the campaign group.

My point is that I fail to see the relevance of 1965 in determining whether reopening the line is a good idea.

Anything that seeks to improve economic performance or the quality of life requires investment and investment costs money. The fact that a project will cost money is not an argument against it since everything costs money. The question is whether the investment will prove worthwhile. That is why the next step is a feasibility study to answer that very question and that is what is being proposed. Certainly the growing view among the local population is one of support and it is their support that will sustain the traffic on the line should it ever be built.

[Rhobat Bryn]

You make some very good points Noel so let me reply to them.

I agree that the growth in passenger journeys is largely due to a rise in commuter traffic, though not exclusively. My reason for making that point was not so much to use it as a way of predicting future passenger traffic on the Aberystwyth-Carmarthen line but rather to argue a point about context. The point was made that it didn't make money back in 1965 so it won't make money now. That seems to ignore the current context which is that demand for rail travel is growing. This is as much true of Wales as of anywhere else in the UK. One of the complaints made across the board about the Wales and Border franchise awarded in 2003 is that it did not allow for growth. As a result, Arriva Trains Wales did not have the rolling stock for the increased capacity required. So, given that there is growth in demand in Wales, it is legitimate to ask the question whether there is now sufficient demand to consider reopening the line.

Your point about local goodwill is true but we are not simply talking about a theoretical proposal. In terms of taking matters forward, when a project is suggested one looks for indications as to the support that exists for that project. Public support is not a sufficient basis for deciding on a reopening but it does demonstrate how acceptable the idea is and whether people see it fitting in to their daily life. This is an important stage in deciding whether to proceed to a feasibility study. Given that the campaign enjoys cross-party support in the Assembly and from numerous community and town councils in the region, people who have a responsibility for the economic development in their areas, it is significant that this project enjoys such widespread support.

It is certainly the case the subsidy has increased but this is because demand has increased. The general direction of travel (pardon the pun) regarding public subsidy of railways has been away from the 40% passenger/60% subsidy split towards a 50/50 model. As a proportion then, the subsidy has been reduced. However it is the major economic benefits that railways bring to the economy that justifies the subsidy. Take the rail network out of the economy and what are you left with? Clearly the Aber-Carm line would require subsidy but this needs to be set against the economic benefits that the line would bring to the region. All of this points to the need for a feasibility study to address the very questions you ask.

Whether evidence is convincing is a matter of judgment; but whether evidence is offered at all is a matter of fact.

I don't know enough about HS2 to debate that particular point with you but clearly new investment usually results in change. The investment in the coal industry that took place in the valleys transformed Wales into a modern industrial nation and yet it wrought terrible environmental damage and great harm to people's health. We are a lot wiser these days about such issues even though vigilance is still required. My point is that no change is entirely positive; it is a question of balancing the factors and seeing whether the negative impact of a proposal can be ameliorated.

However you make some intelligent points, Noel and I thank you for your reply.

[Rhobat Bryn]

The scoping report for the reopening of the Aberystwyth to Carmarthen line has been published. It can be viewed at this address:

http://www.trawslinkcymru.org.uk/wp-con ... -to-WG.pdf

[Newport_rod]

This http://ift.tt/1OEzvw1 had been posted purporting to shown the launch of Arriva Trains' service between Aberystwyth and Carmarthen.